How Will Haniyeh’s Death Impact the Israel-Iran Rivalry?

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly ordered direct retaliation against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, according to the New York Times, which cites three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guards.

Khamenei issued this directive during an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, shortly after Iran confirmed Haniyeh’s death. Both Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of the assassination, although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

This escalation comes after nearly 10 months of conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Iran has been attempting to balance its response by supporting its allies with increased attacks on Israel while avoiding a full-scale war.

In a previous major escalation, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel in April as retaliation for an Israeli attack on its embassy compound in Damascus, which killed several Iranian military commanders.

Iranian military commanders are now contemplating a combined attack involving drones and missiles targeting military sites near Tel Aviv and Haifa, though they aim to avoid civilian casualties. Another potential strategy is a coordinated assault involving Iran’s allies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq to maximize impact.

Khamenei, holding ultimate authority over Iran’s state matters and military actions, has directed military leaders to prepare both offensive and defensive strategies in anticipation of possible escalation, including strikes from Israel or the U.S.

In his public response to Haniyeh’s death, Khamenei vowed to avenge the killing, stating that it was Iran’s duty to respond since the assassination occurred on Iranian soil, and warned that Israel is due for “severe punishment.” Other Iranian officials echoed this sentiment, asserting Iran’s right to defend itself against this breach of sovereignty.

The assassination, viewed as a significant breach of security for Iran, has heightened tensions and led analysts to believe that Tehran feels compelled to retaliate not only to avenge Haniyeh but also to deter future Israeli attacks against key figures like Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah or General Ismail Qaani of the Quds Forces.

Retaliation, analysts suggest, is seen as essential for Iran to maintain its credibility and to defend its sovereignty against further Israeli actions.