France’s Election Upset Sets Stage for Real Power Struggle
The intensity and acrimony of France’s unexpected midsummer election have subsided, making way for what promises to be a prolonged and contentious phase two: the arduous task of forging a workable coalition from the inconclusive results of Saturday’s vote.
“A lot remains uncertain. We know who lost, but not who won. Can we master the art of compromise, so unusual for us? Nobody knows – the signs are not encouraging,” remarked Sylvie Kauffmann, a columnist for Le Monde.
The stakes of deadlock are profound – for France’s domestic stability, its constitutional framework, European cohesion, and even the ongoing conflict in Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Yet, France has navigated political upheavals before, from post-World War II chaos to the era of “cohabitation” where presidents and prime ministers from rival parties shared power. As politicians head for summer recess or focus on the upcoming Paris Olympics, the political temperature in France may briefly cool. However, compared to the relatively genteel disputes of past decades, the upcoming battles in the National Assembly are expected to be more akin to cutthroat brawls, potentially lasting weeks or even months.
Some speculate whether the French electorate, by delivering three almost equally sized minority blocs to parliament, has rendered the country “ungovernable,” or merely posed it with a familiar challenge of coalition-building seen across Europe.
The left-wing New Popular Front (NPF), unexpectedly leading in seats after the election, now seeks to nominate the next prime minister and advance its agenda. Yet, lacking a majority, any viable candidate must secure backing from centrist parties. The NPF, spanning anti-capitalists to mainstream social democrats, faces internal divisions that could destabilize its coalition, exacerbated by figures like Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Amidst this, President Emmanuel Macron, despite losing seats, remains a pivotal figure. His centrist group’s survival in parliament relied on strategic alliances, yet Macron himself appears constrained, caught between political extremes he once sought to transcend. Former allies suggest Macronism, as a driving force, may be waning.
Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN), while disappointed in third place, aims to capitalize on any parliamentary deadlock or left-wing economic policies that might strain France’s finances. With eyes on future elections, RN seeks to rebrand itself as a stabilizing force against what it portrays as radical agendas.
In this atmosphere of uncertainty and maneuvering, France braces for a turbulent period that could reshape its political landscape, with implications reaching far beyond its borders.
